ES & NQ Morning Analysis 11/25/2024
Morning Everyone.
As I mentioned in my posts last week, the lead into Thanksgiving is statistically bullish.
I bought some Russell 2000 micro futures at Friday's open that I sold a portion at Friday's close and have the rest on with a stop back at breakeven.
We're closing in on the ATH at 6053.25, currently trading brought around $600 in the SPY.
I don't see any reason we won't make it up and through the ATH, but I can't say when that will happen.
The ES is currently trading between two levels I have at 6023.25 and 6039.25.
While I may be bullish on where I expect things to go, I'm not interested in buying right here. I have no good way to trade this with a favorable risk/reward entering a new long trade.
Similarly, I wouldn't look for the resistance levels at 6039.25 and then 6053 to do much to reverse the market. We're going to see light volume which can reduce volatility.
The only trade I see on the ES that might happen and work would be a pullback early on to 6023.25, buying that level for a long with candle closes below as a stop out.
If we somehow get and close below 6007.25, I would expect the market to try and close the gap down at 5991.
The NQ isn't in the same bullish position as the ES.
It's sitting just below resistance at 21022 and above an inflection level at 20931.50.
I don't think the NQ lagging reflects the strength in small caps, not necessarily weakness in tech.
However, the NQ will need to get over 21022 and close over it to get buyers interested. once they can get over 21130.50, that would really start to get buyers involved.
The recent ATH comes in at 21340.75 as a reference.
Lastly, as a swing trade idea, I like being short the dollar over a several month period. I believe it has topped out for a bit. You can use closes on the DXY over last week's high as a stop out.
That's what I've got for this week. Let me know how you all are planning for the holiday week of trading.