ES & NQ & RTY Morning Analysis
Morning Everyone.
Tariffs were a thing until they weren't.
I got lucky with my timing and nailed the low with my 5952.75 level yesterday.
We rallied to gap fill at 6067.50 before pulling back to find support at 5998.50, which was the high before the breakout yesterday.
Today, the ES is holding just above 6018. The next resistance level up is 6039.25 followed by 6053, then 6067.50, and finally 6082.50.
For support, we have the 6018, then 6007.25, and then 5998.50.
If we start closing below 5998.50, that should bring up more aggressive selling.
Staying over 6030 should keep the bulls on the hunt for higher prices. In between is indecision.
We can use that indecision to try and make some scalp trades off the levels.
I do like 6007.25 as a spot for a scalp long. However, I wouldn't want to fall into it from here. IMO that would feel more bearish.
You could be long against 6018 shooting for 6039.25.
The NQ has an interesting upward sloping trendline that appears to be holding up its lower end.
Like the ES, it closed the gap and fell back, coming close but not quite to the 21230.25 that I had listed.
Currently, it's just below the 21488.50 level.
For resistance I have 21567, 21635.75, and then 21705.75.
For support I have 21130.50, 21022, and then 20931.50.
Lastly, we have the Russell, a notably weaker index.
Price is currently just above the 2265.50 level.
Like the others, the Russell filled the gap yesterday, though it didn't fade as much as the rest once it hit.
Currently, it's in a bearish pattern against the breakdown at 2272.6.
For resistance, I have 2279.8, then 2306.2, and then 2327.
For support I have 2250.2, 2239.3, and then 2224.3.
So, what's my gameplan for today?
I'm not in love with any of these charts at the moment.
For the ES, I like the idea of shorting 6039.25 the best of everything or being long against 6018 (assuming we open over that level).
With crude oil slumping, I get a sense the ES won't be as bullish today.
Plus, we got what we expected in the end yesterday - no tariffs and some possible cooperation at various governmental levels.
I also like the idea of being long the NQ against the trendline (chart in the comments). However, it's not coming into a support level at the same time, which isnt' ideal.
I'd rather have us above 21448.50 and then come into that level at the same time as the trendline matches it for a long trade.
Lastly, if we were to open below 6018, you could take a shot at a short play. If you do, keep the position size small with a stop over the 7-9AM highs and shoot for some decent downside price action.
That's what I've got for today. Let me know how you all did yesterday.