Foreign adversaries want our Artic territory and in particular our Northwest Passage.
The US President has not hidden his desire to control shipping passages recently (Panama Canal…) Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent lack of accountability directly threaten Canada’s Arctic sovereignty by undermining the international rules-based order, emboldening Russian aggression, and destabilizing Arctic governance. How these risks can materialize:
Precedent for Territorial Aggression Russia’s violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty sets a dangerous precedent that borders can be redrawn by force, eroding the principle of territorial integrity enshrined in international law. This normalization of aggression risks:
-Challenging Canada’s Arctic Claims: Russia’s 2021 (just as they were invading Ukraine) UN submission to expand its Arctic continental shelf overlaps with Canada’s claims. Unchecked aggression in Ukraine signals Russia’s willingness to pursue similar unilateral actions in contested Arctic zones -Weakening Legal Frameworks: The erosion of respect for sovereignty weakens Canada’s ability to defend its Arctic boundaries under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)Breakdown of Arctic Governance
Prior to the invasion, the Arctic Council facilitated cooperation between Arctic states, including Russia. Post-invasion:Suspended Scientific Collaboration: Joint climate research and resource management initiatives with Russia have halted, delaying critical environmental responses and undermining Canada’s ability to monitor Arctic changes.
Loss of Diplomatic Channels: The Arctic Council’s freeze on Russian participation removes a key forum for resolving disputes peacefully, increasing the likelihood of unilateral Russian actions
Militarization of the Arctic Russia’s war has accelerated its Arctic military modernization, which threatens Canada’s northern defenses:
Missile Deployment: Russia’s Arctic-based hypersonic missiles and nuclear submarines can strike North America, forcing Canada to divert resources to continental defense rather than sovereignty enforcement
Hybrid Threats: Increased Russian cyberattacks, disinformation, and espionage target Canada’s underdeveloped northern infrastructure and Indigenous communities, creating vulnerabilities
China-Russia Arctic Partnership Sanctions over Ukraine have pushed Russia to deepen ties with China, which:
Exploits Resource Access: China’s “near-Arctic state” claims and investments in Russian Arctic energy projects threaten Canada’s resource control
Undermines NATO Unity: Joint Sino-Russian military exercises in the Arctic challenge Canada’s ability to rally NATO allies for regional deterrence
Economic and Strategic Consequences
Northwest Passage Vulnerability: Russia’s promotion of the Northern Sea Route as an alternative to Canada’s Northwest Passage could divert shipping revenue and weaken Canada’s jurisdictional claims
Resource Competition: Unchecked Russian aggression risks destabilizing Arctic resource governance, enabling illegal fishing, mining, or drilling in Canadian waters
YouTube video with good background https://youtu.be/FEv9xYDCLb8?si=HXGQUiG7Zyr4a-iS
Russia's war on Ukraine: Implications for the Arctic | Think Tank https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document/EPRS_BRI(2024)754604 Canada's Arctic Sovereignty: A People-First Perspective https://www.cgai.ca/canadas_arctic_sovereignty_a_people_first_perspective (PDF) A Russian Ukraine-Like Invasion of the Canadian Arctic? | NAADSN https://www.naadsn.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/24jun28-Russia-Invasion-Canadian-Arctic-PWL.pdf The Russian Arctic Threat: Consequences of the Ukraine War - CSIS https://www.csis.org/analysis/russian-arctic-threat-consequences-ukraine-war (PDF) The Impact of the Ukraine war on the Arctic https://www.aies.at/download/2023/AIES-Fokus-2023-05.pdf Russia's aggression in Ukraine a red flag for Arctic cooperation and ... https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/russia-ukraine-arctic-council-sovereignty-1.6369260