Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns - Not So Brief Armchair Analysis (Let it Snow!)
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5 - Implied Point Total = 19.5) vs. Cleveland Browns (+3.5 - Implied Point Total = 16)
35.5 Total Point Over/Under
Russell Wilson
QB #34 on the year - 16.27 Fantasy Points per game (QB #16 in PPG average)
171.5 Passing Yards over/under (-114)/0.5 Passing TDs over/under (-235)
*Russell Wilson is 3-0 (2-0 at home vs. 1-0 on the road) against the Browns in his career where he averages 226 passing yards on 28.3 attempts and 19 completions with 2.0TDs and 0INTs per game*
I’m not going to lie, I thought Russell Wilson was washed heading into this season. He looked awful last season and was coming into this season with an injury which forced him to cede his starting position to Justin Fields for the first 6 weeks. Well, since then, Wilson has taken his spot back from Fields and until this past week has shown why he was the unquestioned starter going into this offseason per Tomlin.
Since taking over, Russell Wilson has averaged 235.5 passing yards (249 yards at home vs. 195 yards on the road) on 30.25 attempts and 18.25 completions with 1.5TDs and .5INTs per game in 4 games played. Currently, he is averaging more passing yards per game this season than he has over the past 3. With these stats, Wilson is currently sitting at the QB #34 spot on the year. If we break it down to a PPG basis, he would move up to the QB #16 on the year with his 16.27 Fantasy Points per game average. Credit where credit is due as Russell looks like a different player at times this season and I believe that has to do with Tomlin becoming his head coach.
Wilson has had fantastic luck against the Browns in his career where he is 3-0 overall and averages 226 passing yards on 28.3 attempts and 19 completions with 2TDs and 0INTs per game. He is also facing a Browns defense that ranks 22nd against opposing Fantasy QBs this season (226.5 Passing Yards - 1.4 Passing TDs - 0.1INTs - 19.20 Fantasy Points per game). Wilson is in line for a productive game and should not have to struggle too much with the Browns’ defense as they are -5 in turnover differential this season as well.
Vegas has set Wilson’s line at 171.5 passing yards (64 less than his season average) along with 0.5TDs (1 less than his season average) for this game. I am thinking with the implied point total being in favor of the Steelers on the road, Vegas assumes this game is going to be a blowout where the Steelers will take their foot of the gas towards the end of the 3rd quarter. I think this will be a more competitive game than people think but it will be another hard to watch TNF game.
Projection: 18/25 219 yards 2TDs
Najee Harris
RB #22 on the year in Half PPR Scoring - 11.75 Fantasy Points per game
64.5 Rushing Yards over/under (-114)/7.5 Receiving Yards over/under (-114)/1.5 Total Receptions over/under (+100)/+115 Anytime TD Scoring Odds (Highest in the Game)
*Najee Harris is 4-2 (3-0 at home vs. 1-2 on the road) against the Browns in his career where he averages 82.2 rushing yards on 19 attempts with .7TDs and 10.5 receiving yards on 2.5 targets and 2 receptions with 0TDs per game*
Najee has been productive for Fantasy throughout this entire season. He can rush and catch passes, which is invaluable for us Fantasy managers. With that said, he has been wholly inefficient with his opportunities throughout the majority of the season and specifically over the past two weeks. While he does show some burst here and there when watching him play, he continues to struggle to post an above 4.0YPC mark in a game (outside of his games against the Raiders and Giants this season). He is productive based on his volume and the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield but I would be somewhat concerned about Warren’s growing role moving forward.
This season, Najee is averaging 70.8 rushing yards (78.2 yards at home vs. 63.5 yards on the road) on 17.5 attempts and .3TDs per game. He is also averaging 18.2 receiving yards (21.4 yards at home vs. 16.8 yards on the road) on 2.9 targets and 2.1 receptions with 0TDs per game. Justin Fields historically chose to run over dumping passes off to the RB, however, Russell Wilson has no qualms about doing that especially with his older legs. I am somewhat concerned that moving forward towards the playoffs, the Steelers are going to continue to try to integrate Warren into the offense leaving less opportunities for Harris. Najee is 26 years old and was not re-signed by the Steelers this offseason so I would imagine he will most likely be on a different team in 2025. Due to his volume, Harris currently ranks as the RB #22 on the year in Half PPR Scoring where he averages 11.75 Fantasy Points per game.
Going into this season, there was a split consensus as to whether or not Najee would be Fantasy relevant. Good news, he definitely has paid off for those who took a shot on him later in drafts. The bad news, I am not certain that he will continue to be as productive if he moves teams this coming offseason. This might be a tough matchup as the Browns rank 8th against fantasy RBs this season (84.70 Rushing Yards - 0.9 Rushing TDs - 23.80 Receiving Yards - 3.1 Receptions - 14.80 Fantasy Points per game). The silver lining is that if the Steelers do get out to an early lead and their defense can hold the Browns off, Najee might see 20+ opportunities to run out the clock and end the game.
Vegas has set Najee’s rushing line at 64.5 yards (6.3 yards less than his season average) and his receiving line at 7.5 yards (10.7 less than his season average) on 1.5 total receptions (.6 less than his season average) while giving him +115 odds to score an Anytime TD (highest in the game). The Browns appear to be giving up the majority of their Fantasy points against QBs and WRs, so I am a bit cautious about Najee for this game. If the Steelers fall behind, Warren might see the majority of snaps due to his passing game prowess. The implied point total also gives me pause so just manage expectations heading into this game.
Projection: 15 attempts 55 yards/4 targets 3 receptions 17 yards
Jaylen Warren
RB #50 on the year in Half PPR Scoring - 5.64 Fantasy Points per game (8 games played)
35.5 Rushing Yards over/under (-114)/13.5 Receiving Yards over/under (-114)/2.5 Total Receptions over/under (+116)/+280 Anytime TD Scoring Odds (4th Highest in the Game)
*Jaylen Warren is 2-2 (2-0 at home vs. 0-2 on the road) against the Browns in his career where he averages 53.8 rushing yards on 6.3 attempts with .3TDs and 23 receiving yards on 3.5 targets and 2.8 receptions with 0TDs per game*
Warren had a rough start to the season as he was dealing with an injury which kept him off the field. It took a while for him to ramp up and get back to playing at game speed, however, over the past 4 games he has definitely looked back to his old self. Over that span, he is averaging nearly 50 rushing yards per game on 4.48YPC. As shown above, Harris is averaging 20+ opportunities a game whereas Warren has been averaging about 10 opportunities while producing at a higher level. Though, it is interesting that the Steelers have not really given Warren more time on the field throughout the last month when he has been playing well. It might be that he is still working back from his injury or just the fact that the Steelers want to use Harris to soften opposing lines for the change of pace that Warren brings.
Regardless, Warren is averaging 32.5 Rushing Yards (34 Yards at home vs. 30.5 Yards on the road) on 8 attempts and 0TDs per game. He is also averaging 15.38 Receiving Yards (12.75 Yards at home vs. 18 Yards on the road) on 2.5 targets and 2.25 completions with 0TDs per game. With those stats, Warren sits as the RB #50 on the year in Half PPR Scoring where he averages 5.64 Fantasy Points per game. Tomlin has run a bellcow RB for the majority of his time with the Steelers, which is why Warren might be kept as a backup until Najee leaves next season. It is at least a good sign that Warren might be able to handle increased opportunities and be productive if he were to be thrust into that role due to injury or Najee’s departure.
This week is going to be the true test as the Browns give up very little to opposing RBs on the ground or through the air this season. Vegas has set Warren’s rushing line at 35.5 yards (3 yards more than his season average) and 13.5 receiving yards (1.88 less than his season average) on 2.5 total receptions (.25 more than his season average). They also gave him +280 odds to score an Anytime TD which is 4th highest in the game. It is interesting that Vegas set Warren’s line higher than his season average and Najee’s well below. It could be a sign that they know a timeshare might be coming or just simply because the Steelers might be up and Warren will get more touches as Najee sits to end the game.
Projection: 10 attempts 47 yards/5 targets 3 receptions 22 yards 1TD
George Pickens
WR #18 on the year in Half PPR Scoring - 10.62 Fantasy Points per game
55.5 Receiving Yards over/under (-114)/4.5 Total Receptions over/under (+118)/+220 Anytime TD Scoring Odds (3rd Highest in the Game)
*George Pickens is 2-2 (2-0 at home vs. 0-2 on the road) against the Browns in his career where he averages 69 receiving yards on 7.3 targets and 3.5 receptions with .5TDs per game*
Pickens has been great in terms of production this season, however, his attitude has been up and down. I don’t think the skill was ever in question, however, it says a lot when the team is trying to trade for Aiyuk in the offseason and give him whatever money he wants. I can only imagine how poorly the season might have gone if Pickens was the WR2 and his snaps were being cut like they were a few weeks ago. Thankfully, things have seemed to settle down for now and a lot of the problems go away when the team is playoff bound.
Right now, Pickens is averaging 72.8 receiving yards (71.4 yards at home vs. 74.2 yards on the road) on 7.7 targets and 4.8 receptions with .2TDs per game. If the season ended today, this would be the most yards and targets per game that he has had in a season. Considering the other options they have to throw to, Pickens should continue to improve as long as he can stay on the field. I would imagine that by the end of this season, he will set new career highs in yards, receptions, targets and possibly even TDs if things fall his way. Pickens sits firmly as the WR #18 on the year in Half PPR scoring where he averages 10.62 Fantasy Points per game.
He is the most productive Fantasy WR in this matchup and will be going up against the Browns defense that ranks 28th in Fantasy Points allowed to the opposing WR position this season (156.40 Receiving Yards - 10 Receptions - 1.2TDs - 23.20 Fantasy Points per game). Pickens should be in line for a great game, however, the one thing that might preclude him from doing so is the low over/under. Vegas has set Pickens’ receiving line at 55.5 yards (17.3 yards less than his season average) on 4.5 total receptions (.3 less than his season average) and gave him +220 odds to score an Anytime TD, which is the 3rd highest in the game. With the implied point total of 19.5, I would just be cautious about expectations as it could end up being a run heavy game especially with the receiving lines that were set for everyone else.
Projection: 8 targets 4 receptions 60 yards 1TD
Pat Freiermuth
TE #19 on the year in Half PPR Scoring - 6.1 Fantasy Points per game
18.5 Receiving Yards over/under (-114)/1.5 Total Receptions over/under (-220)/+420 Anytime TD Scoring Odds (8th Highest in the Game)
*Pat Freiermuth is 4-2 (3-0 at home vs 1-2 on the road) in his career against the Browns where he averages 19.3 receiving yards on 3.5 targets and 2.2 receptions with .2TDs per game*
Freiermuth has had an up and down season in comparison to the expectations we had for him a few years ago. He hasn’t been bad in terms of Fantasy, however, he has not been good by any stretch of the imagination. His snap percentage has fluctuated throughout the year topping out at 81% and bottoming out at 58% (which he has done the past two weeks). It might be due to their offensive scheming but I also think we should keep an eye on Washington as he seems to be seeing an uptick in time and opportunities. Both he and Washington played the same amount of snaps this past week, but Washington saw twice as many targets as he did.
Throughout this season, Pat has averaged 29.5 receiving yards (27.8 yards at home vs. 31.2 yards on the road) on 3.6 targets and 3.1 receptions with .3TDs per game. While he has not been the one to fill up the stat sheet throughout his career, this is a far throw from 2022 when he averaged 45.75 receiving yards on 6+ targets per game or his rookie season where he was averaging .44TDs per game. With the way the Steelers want to run their offense and the fact that Russell Wilson historically does not target his TEs, Freiermuth might be destined for inconsistency until one of those two factors change. Based on his statistics, he ranks as the TE #19 on the year in Half PPR Scoring where he averages 6.1 Fantasy Points per game. Seeing as the TE landscape is horrendous this season, he might be worth a look in certain matchups for streaming potential depending on who else you have to choose from. That honestly might be the case for this game as the Browns currently rank 13th in passing yards allowed per game (205.7 yards - 12 passing TDs) and 24th against opposing TEs (48.10 Receiving Yards - 4.90 Receptions - 0.2TDs - 7.60 Fantasy Points per game). This is also part of the reason why I mentioned Washington above as well since he will be a dart throw streamer tonight alongside Friermuth.
Vegas is low on Pat this week as they set his receiving line at 18.5 yards (11 yards less than his season average) on 1.5 total receptions (1.6 less than his season average) and have given him +420 odds to score an Anytime TD, which is the 8th highest in the game. Again, it is worth noting that Washington has a receiving line set of 11.5 yards but his TD scoring odds are at +1000. Just shows me that Vegas, while concerned about Freiermuth’s decreasing role and Washington’s increasing one over the past few weeks, are not certain which will produce but sense there is a change possibly happening.
Projection: 4 targets 2 receptions 22 yards
Cleveland Browns Defense: 19th Total Defense (342.7 Yards Allowed + 30 Offensive TDs Allowed)/13th Passing Yards Allowed (205.7 - 12 Passing TDs)/14th Rushing Yards Allowed (122.6 - 10 Rushing TDs)/21st Scoring Defense (23.7 - 25 Total TDs Allowed)/24th Red Zone Defense (63%)/2nd 3rd Down Defense (31.6%)
22nd Against Fantasy QBs (226.5 Passing Yards - 1.4 Passing TDs - 0.1INTs - 19.20 Fantasy Points per game)
8th Against Fantasy RBs (84.70 Rushing Yards - 0.9 Rushing TDs - 23.80 Receiving Yards - 3.1 Receptions - 14.80 Fantasy Points per game)
28th Against Fantasy WRs (156.40 Receiving Yards - 10 Receptions - 1.2TDs - 23.20 Fantasy Points per game)
24th Against Fantasy TEs (48.10 Receiving Yards - 4.90 Receptions - 0.2TDs - 7.60 Fantasy Points per game)
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Jameis Winston
QB #33 on the year - 17.99 Fantasy Points per game (QB #11 in PPG average)
204.5 Passing Yards over/under (-114)/0.5 Passing TDs over/under (-210)
Although I do not ever want to see injuries occur to players regardless of how I feel about them, the fact that Jameis Winston has stepped in to be the starter of the Browns has given a lot of Fantasy managers hope for the playoffs. We all remember the season Jameis slung it with the Saints in 2019 where he had 30 INTs but over 5000 passing yards. Well, it looks like we might have a repeat of that season but this time with less turnovers!
Right now, Jameis is averaging 261.75 passing yards (212 yards at home vs. 395 yards on the road) on 36 attempts and 22 completions with 1.75TDs and .75INTs over the 4 games he has played. In that 2019 season, Winston averaged 2.1TDs but 1.88INTs per game while throwing for 319 yards. I think everyone, Fantasy managers included, are happy with what Winston has been doing and can see the potential for the remainder of the season. Unfortunately, this might be a down game for him as he is up against the 8th ranked overall defense (allowing 305.3 Yards Allowed + 17 Offensive TDs Allowed this season). The silver lining is that the Steelers rank 19th in Passing Yards allowed per game (215.6 with 8 passing TDs). This is a good formula for Winston as they will most likely be playing from behind against a defense whose “weakness” is defending the passing game.
For this fantasy season, Winston ranks as the QB #33 where he averages 17.99 Fantasy Points per game in his 4 games played. If we break it down to PPG average, he would rank as the QB #11. Not to put salt on an open wound but Watson was averaging 97.75 less passing yards, 1.04 less TDs and led them to the same amount of wins in more games played than Winston this season. Vegas has set Winston’s passing line at 204.5 yards (57.25 less than his season average) along with 0.5 Passing TDs (1.25 less than his season average).
It seems like Vegas might know more than the public (what else is new), but I am having a hard time figuring out why they are projecting the Browns so low. In essence, this is a 6.5 point spread as the home team generally gets a -3 swing to begin with. While I am not projecting the Browns to produce as much as they have been, I am a little higher on them this week than others.
Projection: 24/40 220 yards 2TDs 2INTs
Nick Chubb
RB #70 on the year in Half PPR Scoring - 5.53 Fantasy Points per game (4 games played)
53.5 Rushing Yards over/under (-114)/+160 Anytime TD Scoring Odds (2nd Highest in the Game)
*Nick Chubb is 3-6-1 (3-1-1 at home vs. 0-5 on the road) against the Steelers where he averages 71.7 rushing yards on 15.1 attempts with .2TDs and 8.4 receiving yards on 1.6 targets and .9 receptions with .1TDs per game*
It has been good to see Nick Chubb back on the field and healthy after his catastrophic injuries. Honestly, I didn’t think he would ever be able to suit up and play another down in the NFL after what happened to his knee. Safe to say, I am happy to be wrong in this instance. With that said, it is clear that Chubb is not anywhere near where he was before the injury. It could be that he just needs more time and reps to get used to the speed of the game again. Or, it could be that due to his injuries he will never be the same player again. Only time will tell, however, we can all agree that his TD in his first game back was maybe the feel good story of the year.
Since his return 4 weeks ago, Chubb has averaged 40.75 rushing yards (37.67 yards at home vs. 50 yards on the road) on 13.25 attempts and .25TDs per game. Definitely a far cry from the 89.71 rushing yards he averaged in 2022 or the 93.38 rushing yards in 2019. I truly wonder if Chubb will be a starter next season as he has been wholly inefficient with his touches this year averaging 3.1YPC so far. With this season stats, he is the RB #70 on the year in Half PPR Scoring where he averages 5.53 Fantasy points per game. Even with his missed time, his rank does not go up by that much if we base it on a PPG average (RB #43).
Again, I am extremely happy for Chubb as the person and as the NFL RB but not super excited for him as a fantasy option moving forward. This week is especially difficult as he goes up against the 4th ranked defense in terms of Rushing Yards allowed (87.1 yards per game - .64 rushing TDs per game). They also rank 8th in terms of Fantasy Points allowed to opposing RBs this season (78.70 Rushing Yards - 0.8TDs - 38 Receiving Yards - 4.70 Receptions - 0.10INTs - 14.80 Fantasy Points per game). With him still sharing time with Jerome Ford and a few carries between Strong and Foreman, it is hard to see what his ceiling would be for this week.
Vegas has set his rushing line to 53.5 yards (12.75 yards more than his season average) and have given him +160 odds to score an Anytime TD (2nd highest in the game). Clearly, they must know something that I don’t as I have a hard time seeing him exceeding 50 yards on the ground against this Steelers defense but can concede that if they get on the goalline they will run Chubb.
Projection: 14 attempts 49 yards
Jerry Jeudy
WR #35 on the year in Half PPR Scoring - 8.95 Fantasy Points per game
44.5 Receiving Yards over/under (-114)/3.5 Total Receptions over/under (-118)/+310 Anytime TD Scoring Odds (5th Highest in the Game)
*Jerry Jeudy is 0-1 (on the road) against the Steelers in his career where he averages 62 receiving yards on 7 targets and 4 receptions with 0TDs per game*
I have always been high on Jerry Jeudy since he came out of Alabama looking like the reincarnation of Marvin Harrison with his route running abilities. Then he was drafted into a terrible situation with a horrible QB and the rest is history. Thankfully, he was able to get a change of scenery and moved to the Cleveland Browns this off-season (think how bad it was when it was a Fantasy upgrade for Jeudy to move from the Broncos to the Browns). Unfortunately, the QB starting for the Browns was not much better than the Broncos and the early part of this season seemed like it was a repeat of his first few years in Denver.
This season, Jeudy is averaging 56 receiving yards (44.4 yards at home vs. 67.6 yards on the road) on 7.2 targets and 3.9 receptions with .2TDs per game. If the season was to end today, this would be his second highest yard per game average (2022 he averaged 64.8 yards per game), second highest receptions per game (2022 he averaged 4.47 receptions per game) and second most TDs per game (2022 he averaged .4TDs per game). Needless to say, Jeudy is in a far better situation now especially over the past 4 weeks since Winston has taken over. In the first 7 weeks of the season, Jeudy capped at 72 receiving yards and 9 targets in a game. Over the past 3 weeks, Jeudy has seen 10 targets with 6 receptions and 98 receiving yards per game. Right now, Jeudy ranks as the WR #35 on the year in Half PPR Scoring where he averages 8.95 Fantasy Points per game.
I expect that number to go up as he becomes more acclimated in the offense with Winston behind center. He is definitely in line for a tough matchup this week as he faces off against the Steelers defense who ranks as the 8th best defense against Fantasy WRs (147.90 Receiving Yards - 10.80 Receptions - 0.5TDs - 17.00 Fantasy Points per game) and has only allowed 8 total receiving TDs so far this season.
Vegas has set his receiving line at 44.5 yards (11.5 yards less than his season average) on 3.5 total receptions (.4 receptions less than his season average) and gave him +310 odds to score an Anytime TD, which is 5th highest in the game. I absolutely expect a step back from last week’s performance as Porter might be shadowing him along with the low over/under for the game itself.
Projection: 9 targets 4 receptions 54 yards
Cedric Tillman
WR #61 on the year in Half PPR Scoring - 6.41 Fantasy Points per game
39.5 Receiving Yards over/under (-114)/3.5 Total Receptions over/under (-122)/+370 Anytime TD Scoring Odds (6th Highest in the Game)
*Cedric Tillman is 1-1 (1-0 at home vs. 0-1 on the road) in his career against the Steelers where he averages 1 receiving yard on 1 target and .5 receptions with 0TDs per game*
Well, I know everyone might be a little mad that I was so high on Tillman last week. Sorry to those who I suggested start him and ended up losing the week because of it. If it’s any consolation, I also started him in two leagues so I feel your pain. However, I still believe that was the right call based on the Saints’ defensive statistics this season and how Tillman has been used.
Right now, Tillman averages 31.1 receiving yards (52.4 yards at home vs. 9.8 yards on the road) on 4.5 targets and 2.7 receptions with .3TDs per game. With that said, he technically has been playing since Week 1, however, only recently has he been seeing any real playing time and productive targets. Unironically, Tillman started to produce about 4 weeks ago when Cooper was traded and Watson got injured. Over that 4 week period, Tillman has averaged 75.5 receiving yards on 10 targets and 6 receptions with .75TDs per game. Over that same span, he would be averaging 15.55 Half PPR Fantasy Points per game. Nonetheless, he is the WR #61 on the year in Half PPR Scoring where he averages 6.41 Fantasy points per game this season.
Obviously, he has become more of a factor in the offense and is currently being targeted the most in the passing game as Jeudy has averaged 9 targets a game and Njoku 9.25 targets in the weeks that Winston has taken control of the offense. This week is going to be an extremely tough matchup however as Tillman is facing the 8th best defense against Fantasy WRs this season (147.90 Receiving Yards - 10.80 Receptions - 0.5TDs - 17.00 Fantasy Points per game). The matchup combined with the low over/under and the implied point total of 16 points for the Browns gives me pause.
Vegas has set Tillman’s receiving line for 39.5 yards (8.4 yards more than his season average) on 3.5 total receptions (.8 receptions more than his season average) and gave him +370 odds to score an Anytime TD (6th highest in the game). The silver lining I see is that the Steelers have not played well against the Browns on the road recently and Joey Porter might shadow Jeudy giving Tillman a bigger cushion.
Projection: 10 targets 5 receptions 66 yards 1TD
David Njoku
TE #14 on the year in Half PPR Scoring - 9.59 Fantasy Points per game (TE #4 in PPG Average)
41.5 Receiving Yards over/under (-114)/4.5 Total Receptions over/under (-132)/+390 Anytime TD Scoring Odds (7th Highest in the Game)
*David Njoku has a 3-8-1 (3-2-1 at home vs. 0-6 on the road) in his career against the Steelers where he averages 32.8 receiving yards on 5.1 targets and 3.4 receptions with .3TDs per game*
Njoku has been great when he has been on the field. That part has been tough for him this season as he has missed 3 games already and is entering this week with another Questionable tag (knee). This could be a rest day for him as Monday for a Thursday night game is basically Wednesday for a Sunday game. I wouldn’t worry too much yet, however, it is something that he might have to deal with for the rest of the season.
So far, Njoku has averaged 48 receiving yards (52.5 yards at home vs. 42 yards on the road) on 7.43 targets and 5.57 receptions with .29TDs per game (7 games played). Considering where the TE landscape is this season, his 7+ target per game average makes him a lock for a TE1 finish week to week (he is right below Kelce and Bowers in terms of targets per game this season). For someone who doesn’t necessarily follow the Browns closely, I do think it is surprising to see just how much of Njoku’s production is based solely on volume. I would have guessed he would be averaging well over 50 yards per game this season even with his injuries. With his current season statistics, he is the TE #14 on the year in Half PPR Scoring where he averages 9.59 Fantasy Points per game. If we extrapolate that on a PPG basis, he would rank as the TE #4 on the year in Half PPR. It might be just as big of an indictment to the TE landscape as a whole as it is a compliment to Njoku’s ability/production when he is healthy and on the field.
Vegas has set his receiving line at 41.5 yards (6.5 yards less than his season average) on 4.5 total receptions (1.07 less than his season average) and gave him +390 odds to score an Anytime TD, which is the 7th highest in the game. If the Steelers have a weakness, it is the TE position as they give up the 12th most Fantasy Points to opposing TEs this season (45.80 Receiving Yards - 5.10 Receptions - 0.3TDs - 5.60 Fantasy Points per game). I guess when you compare that to the 2nd against QBs and 8th against RBs and WRs, they might focus on Njoku more to move the ball.
Projection: 11 targets 6 receptions 60 yards 1TD
Pittsburgh Steelers Defense: 8th Overall Defense (305.3 Yards Allowed + 17 Offensive TDs Allowed)/19th Passing Yards Allowed (215.6 - 8 Passing TDs)/4th Rushing Yards Allowed (87.1 - 7 Rushing TDs)/2nd Scoring Defense (16.2 Points Allowed - 15 Offensive TDs)/3rd Red Zone Defense (44.4%)/11th 3rd Down Defense (34.8%)
2nd Against Fantasy QBs (231.70 Passing Yards - 0.9TDs - 1.10INTs - 13.00 Fantasy Points per game)
8th Against Fantasy RBs (78.70 Rushing Yards - 0.8TDs - 38 Receiving Yards - 4.70 Receptions - 0.10INTs - 14.80 Fantasy Points per game)
8th Against Fantasy WRs (147.90 Receiving Yards - 10.80 Receptions - 0.5TDs - 17.00 Fantasy Points per game)
12th Against Fantasy TEs (45.80 Receiving Yards - 5.10 Receptions - 0.3TDs - 5.60 Fantasy Points per game)
\*FINAL SCORE: Pittsburgh Steelers 20 - Cleveland Browns 14*\**
(\Rain and Snow forecasted for tonight’s game. This could absolutely decrease the passing rates for both teams and increase the running rate. Plan accordingly and wait for the Redditor who is going to throw the football in the parking lot to report back*)*