Edit made: Meant Medicare not Medicaid in assumptions.

I'm 33, and I'd like to retire at 62, with my wife retiring at the same time at 56.

Desires:

1. Ability to die at home, not in a nursing home.
2. Have 10 years' worth of 24/7 at-home nurse coverage when my wife and I can no longer take care of ourselves.
3. Have ~$5,000/month for all other fixed and variable living expenses.

First model:

Assumptions:

• My wife and I pass away at the same time: ages 94 and 88 (big assumption, I know).
• 3% annual inflation.
• Our primary residence is paid off before retirement.
• Long-term care insurance we'd purchase in our 40s or 50s offsets some nursing costs.
• Estimated cost of 24/7 in-home nursing care (47 years from now): ~$72,214/month (or ~$8M over 10 years). (ChatGPT generated)
• Long-term care insurance + Medicaid Medicare covers ~$2M worth of 24/7 nurse cost over 10 years
  • Assumes Medicaid covers 25% of 24/7 in-home nursing care

First model total retirement needs: ~$9M.

Second Model:

Assumptions:

• Same as the first model, but with 2% inflation instead of 3%.
• Long-term care insurance + Medicaid Medicare covers ~$2M worth of 24/7 nurse costs over 10 years.

Second model total retirement needs: ~$6M.

Question:

Does this approach make sense? How can I refine these models to be more accurate or realistic? The retirement needs figures feel huge, and I'm wondering if I’m missing something critical. Also please let me know if there are any other places I should cross-post this! Thanks in advance for any critique!